Expected move calculator
1 standard deviation move
±299 (1.33%)
Roughly 2 in 3 outcomes fall inside, if the model were right
1 SD range
22,221 to 22,819
Lower to upper
2 SD range
21,921 to 23,119
Roughly 95% of outcomes, if the model were right
Average daily move
±0.66%
How it works
Implied volatility is the annualised volatility the options market prices in. Scaling it to the time left gives a one standard deviation range around spot.
Expected move = Spot x IV x square root of (days / 365). It is what options imply, not a forecast of direction. Real moves are often fatter-tailed than this model assumes.
Educational calculators with simplified assumptions (no costs, taxes or early exercise). Not investment advice. Check lot sizes and prices with your broker.