Track record
We publish how our labels did, including what did not work. Every number comes with its sample size and a confidence interval. None of this is a promise about the future.
Stock options labels (backtest)
Question tested: after a label, did the stock's 3-day move exceed 1.5 times the move its own options implied? Period 2024-01-23 to 2026-09-28. Events are independent (back-to-back days count once). Normal rate for any stock-day: 12.4%.
| Label | Events | Hit rate | 95% interval | Lift vs normal | Adjusted p | Up after 3 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRONG | 264 | 14.8% | 11.0% to 19.6% | 1.2x | 0.146 (not established) | 54.2% |
| WATCH | 595 | 15.5% | 12.8% to 18.6% | 1.2x | 0.020 (statistically established) | 48.7% |
| EVENT | 585 | 16.2% | 13.5% to 19.4% | 1.3x | 0.006 (statistically established) | 48.5% |
- Small lift: even where it is established, labelled stocks moved beyond 1.5x their implied move only a little more often than normal (about 1.2x to 1.3x).
- Direction: the stock was higher after about half of events (last column), so there is no directional edge.
Live check: last 20 signals
2 of the last 20 signals (2026-09-24 to 2026-10-09) moved beyond 1.5x their implied move (95% interval 3% to 30%). With only 20 observations this says very little.
We publish this live check, wins and losses, as it updates.
Index options: expected vs actual move
Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex, 2024-01-01 to 2026-10-09. A ratio below 1 means the index moved less than options implied, on average. Each expiry is one observation.
| Series | Entry | Events | Implied move | Avg actual move | Actual / implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BANKNIFTY monthly | Month start | 35 | ±4.36% | 3.64% | 0.88 |
| BANKNIFTY monthly | Mid-cycle | 33 | ±3.70% | 2.86% | 0.77 |
| BANKNIFTY monthly | Last week | 33 | ±2.12% | 1.78% | 0.88 |
| NIFTY monthly | Month start | 33 | ±3.90% | 2.86% | 0.77 |
| NIFTY monthly | Mid-cycle | 33 | ±3.24% | 2.64% | 0.82 |
| NIFTY monthly | Last week | 33 | ±1.78% | 1.35% | 0.84 |
| NIFTY weekly | Week start | 144 | ±1.80% | 1.46% | 0.84 |
| NIFTY weekly | Mid-cycle | 131 | ±1.31% | 0.90% | 0.77 |
| NIFTY weekly | Last 2 days | 139 | ±1.02% | 0.71% | 0.85 |
| SENSEX monthly | Month start | 26 | ±3.82% | 2.40% | 0.69 |
| SENSEX monthly | Mid-cycle | 34 | ±3.03% | 2.50% | 0.84 |
| SENSEX monthly | Last week | 34 | ±1.82% | 1.12% | 0.67 |
| SENSEX weekly | Week start | 143 | ±1.81% | 1.34% | 0.77 |
| SENSEX weekly | Mid-cycle | 134 | ±1.48% | 1.01% | 0.81 |
| SENSEX weekly | Last 2 days | 143 | ±1.10% | 0.84% | 0.93 |
MCX options
History is only just starting, so we claim no record. We will publish one when there is enough data.
What we did NOT find
- No reliable way to predict direction.
- A probability model we tried did not work out-of-sample, so we do not show probabilities.
- Selling index straddles to expiry gave mixed results with very large worst days, so we publish no profit figure.
- Backtests are not guarantees; costs and slippage are assumptions.