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Sensex options analysis

End-of-day data as of 2026-10-09

Tomorrow: where Sensex can go (next trading day)

For the next trading day, options point to about 0.8% either way: Sensex between 71,876 and 73,069 (from 72,472).

Lower end
71,876
Now
72,472
Upper end
73,069
71,284wider zone: roughly 19 out of 20 times73,661

Since 2024, the next day's close landed inside this one-day range 74% of the time (506 of 682 days).

Last 20 days: where it actually closed the next day

Green bar: the one-day range options gave. Dot: the next day's close (green = inside, red = outside).

09-09
74,902 ✓
09-10
74,782 ✓
09-11
74,000 ✗
09-15
74,336 ✓
09-16
74,315 ✓
09-17
74,295 ✓
09-18
74,857 ✗
09-21
74,528 ✓
09-22
74,828 ✓
09-23
73,570 ✗
09-24
73,895 ✓
09-25
72,763 ✗
09-28
72,529 ✓
09-29
72,480 ✓
09-30
71,907 ✓
10-01
72,381 ✓
10-05
73,065 ✗
10-06
72,637 ✓
10-07
71,586 ✗
10-08
72,467 ✗

Where Sensex can go till 2026-10-15 (weekly expiry, 6 Days left)

Options traders are pricing in a move of about 1.7% either way. That puts Sensex between 71,277 and 73,668 (now 72,472).

Lower end
71,277
Now
72,472
Upper end
73,668
70,081wider zone: roughly 19 out of 20 times74,864

Since 2024, Sensex weekly ended inside its starting range 71% of the time (101 of 143 expiries). The rest of the time it ended outside.

Last 12 expiries: where it actually ended

Green bar: the range options expected at the start. Dot: where it ended (green = inside, red = outside).

07-23
76,387 ✓
07-30
77,913 ✗
08-06
78,948 ✓
08-13
78,075 ✓
08-20
77,536 ✓
08-27
76,931 ✓
09-03
76,149 ✓
09-10
74,892 ✗
09-17
74,312 ✓
09-24
73,577 ✓
10-01
71,890 ✗
10-08
71,593 ✓

Ended inside the range 9 of the last 12 times.

Busy levels: Most call contracts are open at 76,000 and most put contracts at 70,000. The "max pain" level is 72,500. These are just where most contracts sit, not guaranteed turning points.

Options are priced about normally right now.

All the numbers (for experienced traders)
ATM IV
13.1%
ATM IV vs previous day: -1.99 pts
IV rank
60%
Expected move
±1.65%
±1,193 points
ATM straddle
1.32%
PCR (OI)
1.64
Max pain
72,500
+0.0% from spot
Call / put wall
76,000 / 70,000
Gamma flip
+0.6%
from spot
Spot / Fut
72,472
Expiry
2026-10-15
6 Days left

ATM IV history (60)

15.7%8.6%2026-07-162026-10-09

Expected vs actual move, last 12 expiries

2026-07-23: Expected (options) 1.76%, Actual (absolute) 1.04%07-232026-07-30: Expected (options) 1.85%, Actual (absolute) 1.99%07-302026-08-06: Expected (options) 1.56%, Actual (absolute) 1.31%08-062026-08-13: Expected (options) 1.68%, Actual (absolute) 1.11%08-132026-08-20: Expected (options) 1.41%, Actual (absolute) 0.70%08-202026-08-27: Expected (options) 1.30%, Actual (absolute) 0.78%08-272026-09-03: Expected (options) 1.40%, Actual (absolute) 1.02%09-032026-09-10: Expected (options) 1.50%, Actual (absolute) 1.66%09-102026-09-17: Expected (options) 1.55%, Actual (absolute) 0.79%09-172026-09-24: Expected (options) 1.64%, Actual (absolute) 0.99%09-242026-10-01: Expected (options) 1.79%, Actual (absolute) 2.30%10-012026-10-08: Expected (options) 1.96%, Actual (absolute) 0.44%10-082.3%Expected (options)Actual (absolute) (✓ / ✗)

Where Sensex can go till 2026-10-29 (monthly expiry, 20 Days left)

Options traders are pricing in a move of about 3.0% either way. That puts Sensex between 70,269 and 74,675 (now 72,472).

Lower end
70,269
Now
72,472
Upper end
74,675
68,066wider zone: roughly 19 out of 20 times76,879

Since 2024, Sensex monthly ended inside its starting range 77% of the time (20 of 26 expiries). The rest of the time it ended outside.

Last 12 expiries: where it actually ended

Green bar: the range options expected at the start. Dot: where it ended (green = inside, red = outside).

10-30
84,341 ✗
11-27
85,710 ✓
12-24
85,408 ✓
01-29
82,518 ✗
02-26
82,248 ✓
03-25
74,960 ✗
04-30
76,896 ✓
05-27
75,861 ✓
06-25
77,091 ✓
07-30
77,924 ✓
08-27
76,927 ✓
09-24
73,505 ✗

Ended inside the range 8 of the last 12 times.

Busy levels: Most call contracts are open at 73,000 and most put contracts at 72,000. The "max pain" level is 73,000. These are just where most contracts sit, not guaranteed turning points.

Options are priced about normally right now.

All the numbers (for experienced traders)
ATM IV
12.9%
ATM IV vs previous day: -1.44 pts
IV rank
54%
Expected move
±3.04%
±2,205 points
ATM straddle
2.46%
PCR (OI)
0.98
Max pain
73,000
+0.7% from spot
Call / put wall
73,000 / 72,000
Gamma flip
+0.4%
from spot
Spot / Fut
72,472
Expiry
2026-10-29
20 Days left

ATM IV history (60)

14.3%8.6%2026-07-162026-10-09

Expected vs actual move, last 12 expiries

2025-10-30: Expected (options) 3.15%, Actual (absolute) 3.92%10-302025-11-27: Expected (options) 3.07%, Actual (absolute) 1.55%11-272025-12-24: Expected (options) 2.65%, Actual (absolute) 0.36%12-242026-01-29: Expected (options) 2.78%, Actual (absolute) 3.38%01-292026-02-26: Expected (options) 3.52%, Actual (absolute) 0.39%02-262026-03-25: Expected (options) 3.14%, Actual (absolute) 8.86%03-252026-04-30: Expected (options) 7.26%, Actual (absolute) 2.16%04-302026-05-27: Expected (options) 4.75%, Actual (absolute) 1.37%05-272026-06-25: Expected (options) 4.02%, Actual (absolute) 1.61%06-252026-07-30: Expected (options) 3.86%, Actual (absolute) 1.07%07-302026-08-27: Expected (options) 3.16%, Actual (absolute) 1.28%08-272026-09-24: Expected (options) 2.77%, Actual (absolute) 4.46%09-248.9%Expected (options)Actual (absolute) (✓ / ✗)

This is a range implied by option prices, not a prediction. Price can end outside it and we do not say which way.

Free view shows the last 60 days. The full history comes with the free 5-day trial.

Common questions about Sensex options

What is the Sensex expected move today?

Using end-of-day data for 2026-10-09, options imply about ±1.65% for the weekly expiry on 2026-10-15. It is a range options price in, not a forecast of direction.

What is the Sensex max pain?

For the weekly expiry on 2026-10-15, max pain is 72,500, about 0.0% above spot. Treat it as a reference point, not a target.

What is the Sensex put call ratio (PCR)?

The open-interest PCR for the weekly expiry is 1.64. Above 1 means more put than call open interest. Readings are debated and it is not a signal.

Related

What we did NOT find: any reliable way to predict direction. This page is descriptive data, not a call.