हे पेज अजून मराठीत उपलब्ध नाही, म्हणून इंग्रजीत दाखवले आहे. हिंदीही उपलब्ध आहे.
Stage analysis: the four stages of a trend
Stage analysis sorts a stock's medium-term trend into one of four stages, using a single line: the 150-day (about 30-week) moving average and the direction it is heading.
The four stages
Stage 1, basing: after a fall, the price moves sideways and the average flattens out. Stage 2, advancing: the price is above an average that is rising. Stage 3, topping: the rise stalls, the price churns and the average flattens near the highs. Stage 4, declining: the price is below an average that is falling.
The idea comes from Stan Weinstein's 1988 book on trend following. It became popular because one line, read the same way every time, gives a clear picture of a trend's health.
How we classify it
Every evening we compute each Nifty 500 stock's 150-day average and how much it has moved over the last four weeks. A clearly rising average with the price above it is Stage 2; a clearly falling one with the price below it is Stage 4. When the average is flat, a stock in the upper half of its 52-week range is called Stage 3 and one in the lower half Stage 1. We also show how long the stock has been in its current stage, ignoring one or two-day blips.
Prices are adjusted for splits and bonuses first, otherwise a bonus issue would look like a crash.
What a stage does not tell you
A stage describes the trend so far. It does not predict how long the trend will last, and Stage 2 is not a buy signal. Stocks move between stages, sometimes quickly, and a stage that looks healthy today can change next month.
Stage is most useful as one input next to others, such as relative strength, and as a way to ask a better question: not 'is this cheap?' but 'where is this stock in its cycle?'
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